In our 2022 year-end letter we referenced a Buddy Holly song (Wait Till The Sun Shines Nellie) and its message – look to the future, it’s going to get better – in an effort to instill confidence that financial markets would eventually recover from the difficulties experienced last year. Even as we wrote those words, we did not expect the recovery to come so quickly and to be so powerful. Indeed, half-way through 2023 U.S. stocks, as measured by the S&P 500, are up nearly 16% (excluding dividends), including a more than 8% increase in the second quarter. Foreign stocks, as measured by the MSCI ACWI Ex USA Index, were up modestly during the most recent quarter, but are still up almost 8% year-to-date. Emerging market stocks have been a laggard, up only 3.5% for the year. Fixed income/bond returns were slightly negative during the quarter, as investors came to terms with the possibility that interest rates aren’t coming down as previously expected. While not as exciting as equity returns, bonds are up over 2% year-to-date and, assuming interest rates don’t rise materially from current levels, the asset class is on pace for 4%-5% returns for the year.
